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Case-Shiller Posts 16th Straight Month Of Home Price Improvement
Related Posts: Real Estate Market Info
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According to the Standard & Poors Case-Shiller Index, home values rose 5 percent in June versus the month prior, and 4 percent from a year earlier. It’s the 16th consecutive month in which Case-Shiller reported an increase in home values and the third straight month of outstanding results.
That said, homeowners and home buyers in Lawrenceville would do well to temper Case-Shiller enthusiasm. The June figures are issued on 60-day delay and, over the last 60 days, housing data has been lackluster at best.
- Existing Home Sales are down 27 percent
- New Home Sales are down 12 percent
- Homebuilder confidence is down
Stories like these highlight a key weakness of the Case-Shiller Index — it’s out of date as soon as it’s published. Because of this, the Case-Shiller Index relevance to everyday Americans is muted. People don’t buy homes in the “60 days ago” real estate market, after all.
June is ancient real estate history to buyers and sellers in Sugarloaf.
However, the Case-Shiller Index does have its place. As the most widely-followed, private-sector housing tracker, the index is used to help make policy decisions and to shape Wall Street’s expectations of the economy. This means that a strong Case-Shiller reading can cause mortgage rates to rise, and a weak Case-Shiller reading can cause rates to fall.
Tuesday, mortgage rates fell.
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Mortgage Rates May Be Low, But They’re Tough To Pin Down — Especially This Week
Related Posts: Real Estate Market Info
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Mortgage rates are low right now but pinning them down this week could be a challenge. As Labor Day Weekend nears and Wall Streeters take their head-start on the holiday, trading volume will fall, which will cause mortgage rates in Georgia to get jumpy.
As mortgage rates change, so does the long-term cost of owning a home. Every 1/8 percent adjustment changes a household budget.
Meanwhile, the relationship between “vacation days” and mortgage rate volatility is an interesting one; based more in scarcity than market fundamentals.
Rates tend to get volatile near holidays because of two inter-related facts:
- Conforming mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds
- Mortgage-backed bonds can’t trade without a buyer and a seller at a specific price
So, as the week progresses and more traders leave for their respective “extended” 3-day weekends, there’s fewer buyers and sellers left on Wall Street to connect for a trade. As a result, mortgage bond prices move across larger gaps than on a “normal” day which, in turn, translates into faster, larger changes in rates.
This phenomenon can be exaggerated during periods of economic uncertainty — like what we’re in now — and, furthermore, there’s a bevy of important data set for release this week including the FOMC Minutes, inflation data, and August jobs figures.
In other words, rates would have been volatile without the vacation week. The presence of Labor Day just piles on.
Mortgage rates may rise this week, or they may fall. Either way, if you have a chance to lock something favorable and within your budget, consider doing it. Rates are at all-time lows and likely won’t last.
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Existing Home Sales Plummet In July; Home Buyers Gain Leverage
Related Posts: Real Estate Market Info
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The number of home resales plunged by 1.4 million units in July, according to the National Association of Realtors®’ Existing Home Sales report.
It’s a drop of 27 percent from June; single-family home resales are at the report’s lowest levels since May 1999.
Furthermore, because of the sharp drop in sales volume, home inventories are spiking.
Homes for sale nationwide fell just short of 4 million units in July and, at the current sales paces, it would take 12.5 months for the existing inventory to be absorbed.
Home supply was just 8.9 months in June.
For home sellers in Lawrenceville , the Existing Home Sales report is a bit of bad news. Fewer sales and larger inventories put negotiation leverage in the hands of the buyers which, in turn, creates downward pressure on home prices. It may also increase time-on-market.
For home buyers, however, the data is decidedly welcome. After a stimulus-driven spring buying season that favored sellers, the summer and early-fall market seem to favor buyers. More choices and more leverage is a positive.
It helps that home affordability is up, too.
Although there’s reports that home values are rising, their modest gains are more than countered by the ongoing rally in mortgage rates. Freddie Mac says that 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates are at their lowest levels in history and, at today’s rates, every one-eighth drop in mortgage rates roughly offsets a 1.5% increase to home price.
Mortgage rates are down 0.75 percent since mid-April.
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Single-Family Housing Starts Fade In July
Related Posts: Housing Starts
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Sometimes, you need to look deeper than the headlines to get the news that matters. This basic truth’s latest example comes from the July Housing Starts data, as published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
According to the newspapers, Housing Starts improved last month:
- US Housing Starts Make Modest Rebound (FT)
- Housing Starts Rise Slightly (MoneyWatch)
- Housing Starts Tick Higher In July (MarketWatch)
However, these stories are speaking in terms of all housing starts — not just the single-family ones. This is a major point of difference for home buyers in Dacula because the most people don’t buy the multi-unit homes and apartment buildings that’s also a part of the Housing Starts data.
The overwhelming majority of buyers buy single-family homes and in July, as in the previous 3 months, the number of single-family housing starts fell.
In fact, single-family housing starts are down by nearly 25 percent since April and are now at their lowest levels since May 2009.
This is a much different message from the headlines above.
It’s not surprising that single-family housing starts are down; builder confidence is down as well and the two metrics tend to trend in the same direction.
Furthermore, building permits for single-family homes fell in July, too.
As a home buyer, the drop in Housing Starts should help reduce housing inventory in the months ahead. This may lead home prices to rise because home values are based on supply and demand. For home sellers, falling starts should help reduce competition for buyers.
Each real estate market is unique and supply levels will vary from ZIP code to ZIP code. For up-to-the-minute inventory levels, make sure to talk with your real estate agent.
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As The Pending Home Sales Index Falls, Home Buyers See Dollar Signs
Related Posts: Pending Home Sales
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The Pending Home Sales Index failed to rebound from a cliff-dive in May, falling by another 3 percent more in June. The index remains at record-low levels.
A “pending home sale” is a home under contract to sell, but not yet closed. The data is culled from local real estate associations and large brokers and accounts for 20 percent of all purchase transactions in a given month nationwide.
The Pending Home Sales Index is a future indicator for the housing market; there is a high correlation between the PHSI and the monthly Existing Home Sales report. This is because of the relatively large sample set used for the PHSI, and because 80 percent of homes under contract close within 60 days, according to the National Association of Realtors.
June’s Pending Home Sales Index is weak by most measures, but if you’re a home buyer in Lawrenceville , the headlines aren’t so bad. Fewer home sales can push negotiation leverage to the buy-side of a transaction.
Plus, there’s other positives in the market for today’s buyers:
- Home supplies are up, which creates competition among sellers
- Builder confidence is down, which leads to “free” upgrades and incentives
- Mortgage rates are low, which increases cash flow and disposable income
All things equal, the current home buying conditions haven’t been this favorable in years.
The falling figures in June’s Pending Home Sales Index hint that home sales will be down through the rest of the summer and into early-Fall. However, mortgage rates may not and higher mortgage rates can do more to change a monthly payment that a small reduction in home price.
If you’re planning to buy a home later this year, consider moving up your time frame.
It’s an excellent time to be a buyer in Sugarloaf.
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Falling Consumer Confidence Helps Drag Mortgage Rates Lower. For Now.
Related Posts: Consumer Confidence
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For the second consecutive month, U.S. consumer confidence is plunging. July’s official reading is its lowest since July of last year and the figures run in stark contrast to just two months ago, when the index touched a multi-year high.
According to The Conference Board, July’s figures are reflective of a more pessimistic consumer; one concerned about “business conditions and the labor market”.
Falling confidence numbers are presumed to be poor for the economy. For homeowner and home buyers in Duluth , however, they can create opportunity. Low confidence can influence the mortgage market in a positive manner, driving mortgage rates down.
Mortgage rates are already at their lowest levels of all-time.
The link between consumer confidence and everyday mortgage rates roots in consumer spending.
Consumer spending accounts for close to 70% of the overall U.S. economy so, the thought goes that, a less confident consumer is less likely to spend money, thereby retarding economic growth. This harms the stock markets and drives cash to bonds, including mortgage-backed bonds.
More bond demand leads bond prices to rise which, in turn, pushes mortgage rates lower.
The other side of lagging confidence is that Americans may be less likely to take new financial risks when they’re feeling unsure, including buying a new home. This can then drag on the housing market, negatively impacting home prices across Georgia.
Falling home values can help buyers, harm sellers, and stymie would-be refinancers.
It’s tough to predict how consumer confidence data will work its way through the economy, but in the near-term, it appears to be helping mortgage rates stay low. If you’re floating a mortgage rate with your lender, or contemplating a refinance, the time may be right to lock in a rate.
Low rates can’t last forever.
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Housing Starts Ease 0.7 Percent In June — 7x Better Than The Headline Data
Related Posts: Housing Starts
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Single-family Housing Starts eased lower last month, falling by 0.7 percent from May, or 3,000 units nationwide.
A “housing start” is a home on which construction has started.
June’s Housing Starts data is somewhat soft and may partially explain why home builder confidence dropped to its lowest level since April 2009, but for buyers and sellers in Duluth , the Housing Starts report is not nearly as bad as headlines say.
This is because when the press reports on Housing Starts, it doesn’t single out single-family homes. The press lumps every type of home into a single, giant reading. As a result, news outlets are reporting Housing Starts down 5 percent — a somewhat misleading figure.
The 5 percent figure is actually a combination of 3 separate housing types:
- Single-Family Housing Starts
- Multi-Unit Housing Starts (2-4 Units)
- Apartment Building Housing Starts (5 or more units)
But, single-family homes are what most Americans purchase. This is why the single-family starts data is more relevant than the combined figure commonly reported by the press. 2-4 units and apartment buildings are a different realm of buyer.
That said, though, we can’t even be sure that June’s Single-Family Housing Starts report is accurate. As noted in the Department of Commerce’s press release, the data’s margin of error is 10.7 percent which means the reported results are of “no confidence”.
In other words, there is no statistical evidence to prove the actual change was different from zero.
If Housing Starts did, in fact, drop in June, it will help to reduce the Chateau Elan housing inventory, which will provide support for local home values. For home sellers, this could be good news. Fewer homes for sale means less competition for buyers.
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Sagging Homebuilder Confidence Opens The Door For Good Deals
Related Posts: Homebuilders
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Builder confidence in the housing market slipped this month, according to the National Association of Homebuilders’ monthly Housing Market Index.
The Housing Market Index is actually a weighted composite of 3 separate surveys. One measures current single-family sales; one measures projected single-family sales; and one measures traffic of prospective buyers.
All three surveys were down in July:
- Single-Family Sales : From 17 (June) to 15 (July)
- Single-Family Project : From 22 (June) to 21 (July)
- Buyer Foot Traffic : From 13 (June) to 10 (July)
The HMI’s July reading of 14 puts confidence at its lowest point since April 2009.
For home buyers in Dacula , a drop in builder confidence could create an opportunity for negotiation.
Remember, it wasn’t too long ago that most builders were flush with home inventory, unable to find willing buyers. To help move product at that time, builders dropped prices and offered incentives including free upgrades. If confidence continues to sag going forward, home purchase deals of that nature may return — especially as the foreclosure market gets larger.
See, in the past, builders’ main competition for buyers were the existing home sellers. Today, builders compete with the existing home sellers and the banks with REO.
It’s a terrific time to be a home buyer, in other words — sellers are fighting for you. It’s no wonder sellers have little leverage anymore. Couple that with all-time low mortgage rates and affordability for homes is at an all-time high.
If you’re planning to buy a home later this year, you may want to consider moving up your time frame. The market looks ripe for good deals this summer.
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Was The Pending Home Sales Report Really That Bad? It Depends Who You Ask — Buyer Or Seller.
Related Posts: Pending Home Sales
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The Pending Home Sales Index plunged in May 2010, just one month after the expiration of the federal home buyer tax credit program.
The Pending Home Sales Index is now at a record-low level.
A “pending home sale” is an existing home under contract to sell, but not yet closed. According to the National Association of Realtors®, 80 percent of homes under contract close within 60 days.
Because of this timeline, we can expect the summer’s Existing Home Sales to be weak, too. With fewer homes going under contract, fewer homes can close.
On the surface, May’s Pending Home Sales Index looks like terrible news for housing. And, if you’re a seller, it just might be. But, if you’re a buyer, the story reads differently. Just consider the market conditions.
A broad look at the housing market shows:
- Home supplies are rising in most markets
- Home sales are falling in most markets
- Mortgage rates are at all-time lows
In other words, in most markets, more sellers are competing for fewer buyers, and the “winning” buyers are financing their homes at the lowest rates in history.
It’s an excellent time to be a home buyer in Dacula.
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Buyers Take The May 2010 New Home Sales Data All The Way To The Bank
Related Posts: New Home Sales
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One month after the federal homebuyer tax credit’s official expiration, the New Home Sales report turned in its worst showing ever.
In May 2010, for the first time in 11 months, the inventory of unsold new homes crossed the 8-month marker, posting an 8.5 month supply overall.
Additionally, new homes sales volume fell to 300,000 units nationwide — a drop of 32% and its lowest level since the Commerce Department started tracking data in 1963.
Now, universally, the press is referring to the May New Home Sales report as “poor“. A closer look, however, shows that may not be the case.
For one, we have to keep New Home Sales in perspective as a percentage of overall home sales. Yes, there were just 300,000 new homes sold in May, but there were also 5.66 million “existing” homes sold.
New Home Sales, therefore, accounted for just 5 percent of the total housing market — a very small percentage.
Another reason why the weak New Home Sales data isn’t so awful is that, when New Home Sales stall, it actually benefits home buyers. Excess supply puts a strain on sellers which, in turn, gives buyers a tremendous amount of leverage in negotiation.
When home inventories are high, builders are more apt to appease their customers in hopes of making a sale. For Duluth home buyers, this can result in buying a better product at a lower price.
Especially with builder confidence plummeting.
Since February 2009, housing has shown steady gains. There’s been both peaks and valleys across units, inventories, and prices, but overall, the market is improving. May’s New Home Sales data shows how now may an opportune time to “buy new”.
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