Why Hamilton Mill Real Estate is Ripe for a Rebound!
Related Posts: Real Estate, Real Estate Data
hiIt’s been a tough real estate year in Hamilton Mill (like most places).
Prices have definitely dropped and volume (number of homes sold monthly) has dropped sharply.
However, I’m very encouraged by what we are seeing in the market today. There are 4 factors that I watch very closely to predict the direction of the market:
#1. Total Homes on the Market
#2. Number of showings
#3. Number of new contracts written
#4. Number of newly expired listings
All of these metrics are moving in the right direction now.
Today, the total number of homes for sale in Hamilton Mill is 109. (It’s actually about 106 or 107 because a few of these homes are at some stage of contract or lease purchase or rental agreement). Anything less than 110 is MUCH more normal for Hamilton Mill. I don’t think this number has dropped below 100 anytime in the last 5 years. BUT, earlier this year, the total homes on the market was approximately 150 — WAY too many — so we had a major oversupply of homes. When supply goes way up, we all know what happens to pricing. You got it. It starts dropping.
The total number of showings is another important factor that we watch. You can’t tell much from the total showings on just one house. We look at showings on all of our listings, plus we talk to other agents to find out more about their current showings. Obviously, if lots of people are out looking, that’s an important step toward contracts! In the last 2 weeks, total showings have been on the rise. This really makes us expect stronger demand in December& January.
Right now there are 9 homes under contract with 14 sold since October 1st. Those are pretty encouraging numbers! Certainly way off the pace we set in 2006, but pretty strong compared for recent months.
We’ve also had 14 expired listings in the last 30 days. That’s a pretty big number, but not really a suprise since it is so close to Christmas. Many sellers intentionally end their contracts before the holidays — even if they intend to sell again in the new year. (this is why Christmas is actually a great time to sell! Less competition. But, that’s another story)
The bottom line is that we’re predicting greater volume in Q1 — but with stable or declining prices.
Volume comes first and then we can move toward higher prices (based on the increased demand)
